Inconsistency in the Polls

This weekend something popped to my attention that I really hadn't considered before.  Before I write this it must be prefaced by saying this most likely would not have come to my attention if I were not a Clemson fan, but I will do my best to stay objective.

Last week Clemson suffered a 49-37 loss in which Florida State proved they were the better football team.  Coming into last weeks game Florida State was 14.5 point favorites against the Tigers.  ESPN analysts on College Gameday predicted the Seminoles to roll the Tigers at home, because of their powerful defense and unstoppable offensive attack.  Nobody gave Clemson a chance.  I picked the Seminoles to win by 10 points and wasn't far off with my pick.

What is really irritating skin is how the media praises Florida State as National Championship contenders and talks of E.J. Manuel as a possible Heisman finalist, but drops Clemson 7 spots in the rankings.  It is and was extremely harsh to drop the Tigers from 10 to 17.  Anyone who watched that game knows it was a very well played games by both teams.  Even the analysts will admit that Clemson played their heart out and had control of that game until late in the third.  But 7 spots?  Seems a but much.

What the media is portraying by dropping Clemson 7 spots is Florida, Texas, Southern Cal, Ohio State, TCU and Oklahoma are better than Clemson.  And for the first 3 teams, I would agree.  However, based on schedules up until that point, there is no reason the Tigers should have fallen behind Oklahoma, TCU or Ohio State.  If the SEC is all it is chalked out to be, than Clemson has a pretty nice out of conference win against the Auburn Tigers.  Not to mention, TCU and Oklahoma had not played anyone up to that point.

The media cannot continue to praise Florida State for their poise and talent in that game and drop the Tigers 7 spots in the polls.  It is unjustifiable and inconsistent.  If so, Florida State's loss means less now, because Clemson is a middle of the pack top 25 team.

Florida State is around the 6th or 7th best team in the country (In my opinion)  and is better than Clemson this year.  But if Florida State is going to receive praise for beating Clemson, then it is not valid to slam Clemson for competing with and coming close to beating the Seminoles.

USA today has released the first pre-season college football poll for the upcoming season.  Let this article be prefaced with the statement that I care not for pre-season rankings because of their irrelevance to what will actually happen during the year.  The importance of pre-season polls is nonexistent.  However, it does provide a good platform to review how America has reviewed certain teams and how I view certain teams.  Without further ado, USA todays preseason rankings.  

RK	TEAM	RECORD	PTS
1	LSU (18)	0-0	1403
2	Alabama (20)	0-0	1399
3	USC (19)	0-0	1388
4	Oklahoma	0-0	1276
5	Oregon	0-0	1258
6	Georgia	0-0	1061
7	Florida State	0-0	1055
8	Michigan	0-0	1023
9	South Carolina	0-0	981
10	Arkansas	0-0	948
11	West Virginia	0-0	833
12	Wisconsin	0-0	743
13	Michigan State	0-0	717
14	Clemson	0-0	598
15	Texas	0-0	549
16	Nebraska	0-0	501
17	TCU	0-0	499
18	Stanford	0-0	497
19	Oklahoma State	0-0	476
20	Virginia Tech	0-0	461
21	Kansas State	0-0	398
22	Boise State	0-0	271
23	Florida	0-0	250
24	Notre Dame	0-0	166
25	Auburn	0-0	66

• Others receiving votes: Washington 64, Louisville 46, Georgia Tech 35, Cincinnati 32, Texas A&M 28, Baylor 23, Utah 22, Mississippi State 21, SOUFLA 12, NCSTATE 11, Louisiana Tech 10, Brigham Young 10, Virginia 9, Houston 7, Southern Miss 6, Rutgers 5, UCF 5, Tennessee 3, Missouri 3, FLAINTL 3, Northern Illinois 2, TEXASTECH 1

The first thing about this poll that stands out to me is LSU at #1 followed by Alabama at #2.  I know it's based on votes by coaches and some others, but the likelihood that Alabama and LSU end up facing off for another National Championship in the BCS is miniscule.  Not to mention the BCS haters might burn down entire cities in retaliation and anger.  I understand why they are ranked the way they are.  It's just something that doesn't make too much sense.  My final rankings will be based on how I believe they will finish at the end of the regular season

1. LSU is a great fit at #1 and no one else should have any reason to think otherwise.  They return a Heisman candidate, ON THE DEFENSIVE SIDE OF THE FOOTBALL.  It's not everyday you see a defensive player and special teams phenomenon dominate the game like Tyrone Mathieu (aka "The Honey Badger") did in 2011.    Granted they lose Morris Claiborne to the NFL, but I believe compared to what others in the country have lost, LSU shouldn't have a problem replacing him.  Their backups from last year will be prepared to take over that position.  

2.  My first issue comes here at #2.  Now don't get me wrong, I think Alabama is an excellent team, and could easily take down LSU this year.  However, in my books LSU is winning that head to head matchup.  Alabama loses 2011 Heisman finalist Trent Richardson, tough shoes to fill.  Alabama has had a knack for churning out monster-like running backs each and every year and TJ Yeldon could be that guy ( he was named MVP for Alabama's spring game).  However, Alabama needs a wide receiver to establish himself as the #1 guy in the offense.  And with LSU's secondary I don't see Alabama getting past them.  I have Alabama at #4.  

3.  USC comes into this season off NCAA sanctions, vicious and bloodthirsty looking for a National Championship.  Quarterback Matt Barkley has arguably the best receiving core in the nation, led by Jr Robert Woods.  In the 2nd year under Lane Kiffin the Trojans are poised for a National Championship run, and will meet LSU in that game.  USC comes in at #2.  

4.  The Oklahoma Sooners are looking forward to playing the role of party spoiler this year.  The Sooners return Landry Jones at Quarterback, one of the nations best from 2011.  They also return standout WR Kenny Stills.  Oklahoma has the weapons to make the BCS National Championship, but can they put it together? With a stretch of @WVU, OKST, and @TCU to finish the year I see the Sooners on the outside looking in, but don't be surprised if they run the table.  Oklahoma comes in at #3.  

#5  I love Oregon at #5.  They lose LaMichael James and Darren Thomas, but the Ducks have had an uncanny ability to plug in new pieces to their spread offense and have it continue to be successful.  Oregon finishes 11-1, their only loss coming to USC.  Oregon is also my #5.

#6  Georgia is a great fit here.  Their tough schedule presents a great challenge for them (sense my sarcasm).  Georgia should fear USC, GT, and maybe Vandy, (watch out for the Commodores).  Georgia is my #6

#7  FSU.  I witnessed Clemson beat FSU in the valley last year.  E.J. Manuel banged up and bruised, along with most of the Seminole team after a grueling loss to the Oklahoma Sooners the previous Saturday.  Florida State has mirrored Clemson in a lot of ways with recruiting.  The difference is, Clemson was able to put it together last year, unlike the Seminoles.  As a Clemson fan, I have a hard time convincing myself that the Tigers can walk into Doak Campbell and steal one from beneath the noses of the Seminoles.  Regardless, I think FSU is overrated at #7.  The have underperformed in previous years.  FSU is guilty until proven innocent.  Seminoles? overrated.  I have them outside my top 10.  

#8  Michigan is coming into this season with a plethora of hype surrounding them.  Denard Robinson back, 2nd year under Brady Hoke, coming off an 11-2 record in 2011 The Big House reenergized, and how could we forget those awesome striped helmets they wear.  Could this be the perfect storm for the Wolverines?  I don't believe its quite their time.  But they're an excellent fit at #7.  

#9.  The South Carolina Gamecocks head into the 2012 football season with a clean slate.  No Stephen Garcia, Marcus Lattimore back from injury, defense still as powerful as the Justice League.  I have the Gamecocks at #8.  I have the utmost respect for their defense, my concerns for them come on the offensive side of the football.  Connor Shaw loses his number 1 target, Alshon Jeffrey.  Shaw now needs to reprove himself as a passer with no giant target on the outside.  The receiving core of the Gamecocks also needs to step up.  SOmeone has to become a #1 guy for them, if they are going to succeed.  On a smaller note, how will Marcus Lattimore return from injury?  Will he immediately be the hard-nosed, smash mouth runner from a year ago or will their be an injury curve, and take some time to return to his normal state, not only physically but mentally.  If USC can solve all of these issues.  Watch out UGA, if not, USC is on upset alert week one @Vandy.  

#10 I am completely against Arkansas at 10.  Its as simple as this, Arkansas is extremely talented, but their offseason shenanigans by previous coach Bobby Petrino have put them between a rock and a hard place.  They lost one of their leaders.   Maybe the miraculous happens and they put together an incredible season.  But playing in the SEC West, under new management, from halfway through the offseason.  I don't see it.  Arkansas is a bust.  

Outside the top ten my teams to look out for are- Wisconsin, Clemson, West Virginia, and thats right, the Vanderbilt Commodores.  

Wisconsin returns Heisman finalist Monte Ball who finished last year with almost 2000 yards and 39 touchdowns.  Their starting quarterback Danny Obrien worries me, but with Monte Ball in the backfield, and a wall of statues blocking for you, you can't be all that bad.  My hunch is Obrien will settle in with time in the pocket.  

Clemson walks into the 2012 trying to get the nasty thoughts and taste out of their mouth from the 70-33 defeat in the Orange Bowl.  Clemson brings in a new defensive coordinator from Oklahoma in Brent Venables, an excellent coach and recruiter. (Check out the 2013 class).  The complaints of previous coordinator Kevin Steele were that the defense was too complex, and didn't allow players to act on gut instinct.  The problem was addressed with the hiring of Venables who brings in a less complex system involving more zone coverage.  Clemson returns almost all of its offensive pieces.  Tajh Boyd returns with a year of experience at quarterback. He struggled at times last year, but when he was on there was no defense capable of slowing him down.  Clemson returns one of the nations top receiving cores, which rivals that of the Trojans.  Preseason All-American Sammy Watkins, solid, explosive #2 guy in DeAndre ("Nuke") Hopkins, Jaron Brown, Tight end Brandon Ford who is expected to exceed the performance of his predecessor Dwayne Allen.  And last but not lead the wildcard at receiver, 6-5 Martavis Bryant.  Last year he was established as a deep ball threat in certain situations, but has the potential to play even a bigger role in the offense this year.  The offensive question marks come at RB and OL for Clemson.  Clemson must replace two Offensive Linemen from last year, and has very little depth at running back do to Mike Bellamy being kicked off the team earlier this summer.  The Tigers could be defined by the decision Dabo Swinney has yet to make on Sammy Watkins, who was arrested in May for possession of marijuana.  Yes, you can probably tell I've grown up a Clemson fan, but was anything I said untrue?  

West Virginia showed just how dangerous their offense could be against Clemson in the Orange Bowl, thus they are a perfect fit for the Big 12.  Who's going to stop them? (I think they just scored again on Clemson).

Last but not least Vanderbilt.  In their 3rd year under new management, vanderbilt is my NCAA dark horse.  Vandy returns almost all of their starters from last year, and their 2012 starters consist of only 2 underclassmen.  Thats experience if I've ever seen it.  They have a running back in ZAc Stacy who was awarded all SEC honors last year, and is expected to be just as explosive this year.  This is their first year under Jordan Rodgers (younger brother of Aaron Rodgers).  Rodgers started half the games last year, and performed very well.  They return two proven receivers in Jordan Matthews and Chris Boyd and return 4 starters on the offensive line.  However, the thing that most impresses me about Vandy is their schedule   They lead off the year with South Carolina at home, to kick off the college football season.  If there was anytime to beat USC it would be in the season opener, before they can get their legs under them.  Vandy then plays Northwestern, (a formidable opponent), followed by Presbyterian and a road trip to Athens.  The schedule then proceeds as follows, @Mizzu, home against Florida, Auburn and UMASS, @UK and OleMiss, Home against Tennessee and @WF.  It is completely rational to say that Vanderbilt's last loss could be against Missouri, in early October.  They could lose to the best 3 teams in their division and still finish 9-3.  In fact, I have Vanderbilt finishing 9-3 this year.  Its a perfect storm if I've ever seen one.  

My busts from the top 25 are Auburn and Florida.  I understand that they play in the SEC, but I just don't see either of these teams as good enough to crack the top 25.  Florida loses offensive coordinator Charlie Weiss to the Kansas head coaching job, and Auburn loses, Ted Roof, Michael Dyer and Gus Malzahn to other coaching jobs.  Florida is a year or two away and Auburn took a step back with all of its changes from last year.  

All that said, I just can't wait to watch college football.

Matthew Kreh